Least Cost Power Development PlanStudy period 2011-2031
Least Cost Power Development Plan
Kenya’s power industry generation and transmission system planning is undertaken on the basis of a 20 year rolling Least Cost Power Development Plan (LCPDP), updated every year. This study is an update of the LCPDP that was finalised in March 2010. The update involved the review of the load forecast in light of changed pertinent parameters, commissioning dates for committed projects, hydro data, costs of generating plants and transmission system requirements. The update also incorporated key lessons learned in the last update, mainly the need to incorporate population, urbanization and efficiency gains and technology in undertaking the demand forecast and capturing of potential new demand arising from the vision 2030 flagship projects and other investor projects.
The update was undertaken with the aid of several models: excel for load forecasting, VALORAGUA for hydro-thermal system optimization, WASP for the system expansion plan optimization and PSSE for transmission planning.
The load forecast based on the MAED based excel worksheets indicates that the peak demand lies in the range of 1,227 MW in 2010 and between 12,738 and 22,985 MW in 2031. The reference case ranges from 1,227MW in 2010 to 3,751MW in 2018 to 15,026MW in 2030 and 16,905MW in 2031, while the energy demand increases from 7,296GWh in 2010 to 22,685GWh in 2018 to 91,946GWh in 2030 and 103,518GWh in 2031. The current peak load is estimated to grow 13 times by the year 2031. There is a very slight difference between this year’s load forecast and the load forecast done in the last update of 2010-2030. The reference peak demand for 2030 in the last update was 15,065MW, which compares very closely to the revised peak demand of 15,026 MW.
Least Cost Expansion Plan
Candidate generation resources considered in the system expansion plan include geothermal, hydro, Wind, coal, oil-fired and nuclear power plants. The optimal development program is dominated by geothermal, nuclear, coal, imports and wind power plants. Geothermal resources are the choice for the future generating capacity in Kenya. The optimum solution indicates that geothermal capacity should be increased from the current 198MW to 5,530 MW in the planning period, equivalent to 26% of the system peak demand by 2031.
The system expansion plan over the 20 year plan period indicates that 26% of the total installed capacity will be obtained from geothermal, 19% from Nuclear Plants, 13% from coal plants and 9% from imports. Wind and Hydro plants will provide 9% and 5% respectively while Medium Speed Diesel (MSD) and Gas Turbines (GTs) - LNG plants will provide 9% and 11% of the total capacity respectively. The present value of the total system expansion cost over the period 2011-2031 for the reference case development plan amounts to US.$ 41.4 billion, expressed in constant prices as of the beginning of 2010.
Using the least cost generation development plan a transmission plan was developed for the period 2011- 2031. The transmission development plan indicates the need to develop approximately 10,345 Kms of new lines at an estimated present cost of USD 4.48 Billion.
Implementation of the plan
The Ministry of Energy (MoE) shall ensure successful and timely implementation of the following projects through the project implementation committee.
|Project description||Capacity MW /length of KM||Time lines||Implementing agencies||Approximated presentvalue costs|
|Committed generation projects||1,815 MW||2011-2015||KENGEN and IPP||US$ 3.9 billion|
|Proposed generation projects||18,920 MW||2015-2031||KENGEN and IPP||US$41.4 billion|
|Proposed transmission projects||10,345Km||2011-2031||KETRACO||US$4.48billion|
Other specific activities will include:
- MoE through the Nuclear Energy Programme Implementation Office (NEPIO) shall undertake preparatory work for the nuclear power plant expected to come on stream in 2022.
- MoE shall continue exploration and subsequent mining of local coal to meet the high demand for coal arising from the proposed coal plants of up to 2,720MW.
- Monitoring strict adherence to the geothermal drilling programme shall be undertaken.